Changing Energy-use Pattern and the Demand Projection for Indian Agriculture§

The structure of energy-use in Indian agriculture has changed substantially, with a significant shift from the animal and human power towards machines, electricity and diesel. The total commercial energy input in Indian agriculture has increased from 425.4 × 109 Mega Joules in 1980-81 to 2592.8 × 109 Mega Joules in 2006-07. This shift, coupled with increasing commercialization and diversification towards high-value crops, will require more commercial energy. In this paper, a direct and robust relationship between energy use and agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) has been established using the cointegration analysis. The demand for direct energy input in agriculture in the year 2016 is projected to be 33.33 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) if agricultural GDP grows at 3 per cent and 41.49 MTOE if agricultural GDP grows at 4 per cent; this represents an annual average growth rate of 7-9 per cent over the current consumption.